ProbablyMonsters bets on AA single-player niche as big publishers retreat
Summary
ProbablyMonsters, founded by ex-Bungie chief Harold Ryan, pivoted from AAA to AA development after nearly a decade with zero releases
The studio is building a portfolio of original single-player IP inspired by the Xbox 360 era of creative variety
First two titles (Storm Lancers, Ire: A Prologue) posted extremely low Steam sales, signaling early commercial struggles
New publishing leadership hired in March to strengthen go-to-market capabilities
"We're building a portfolio, we're building a brand, and we want to show gamers that if you see the ProbablyMonsters logo on a game, it'll be something a little different."
01
From AAA ambition to AA pivot - a forced evolution
ProbablyMonsters was originally founded in 2016 to transform AAA game development
After nearly a decade with zero shipped titles, the company made an abrupt pivot to AA development
The pivot was accelerated by the collapse of Firewalk Studios (spun off to Sony), which was shuttered after Concord's disastrous launch
"The market evolved - and we had to step back and figure out how to evolve."
02
AA as a strategic niche - not a fallback
ProbablyMonsters is positioning AA as an intentional creative and commercial strategy, not a compromise
The AA space allows developers to "realise ambitions of intellectual property and game mechanics that they probably couldn't do in other places"
Four titles revealed in recent months: Storm Lancers, Ire: A Prologue, Crimson Moon, and Nekome: Nazi Hunter
Nekome is directed by ex-Rockstar Games VP of product development Jeronimo Barrera
Both new titles are gore-heavy, pulp-style single-player games evoking Tarantino and Darksiders aesthetics
"Tell me a story about another world that I can't get to - these are the kinds of things I think you're going to see us doing with Nekome, with Crimson Moon."
03
Early commercial results raise questions
Storm Lancers peaked at 29 concurrent players on Steam; estimated at 831 units sold (Steam only)
Ire: A Prologue peaked at 22 concurrent players; estimated at 415 units sold (Steam only)
Both titles also launched on Epic Games Store and Nintendo Switch, with no public figures available for those platforms
Reid acknowledges results fell short: "I take a look at some of those results and I'm like, I know there are ways to do this better"
The company's publishing infrastructure was identified as a key weakness during the first releases
04
New publishing leadership brought in to course-correct
In March, ProbablyMonsters hired David Reid (CMO), Jonathan Lander (Chief Publishing Officer), and Mark Subotnick (Chief Product Officer)
Reid brings 20+ years of experience from Behaviour Interactive, CCP Games, Trion Worlds, and Xbox Platform Marketing
The hires signal a deliberate effort to match publishing sophistication with development capability
"If we're going to do this, we need to get serious about this publishing side of things and level up our capabilities there."
05
Flexible marketing spend as risk management
ProbablyMonsters is applying a variable marketing spend model tied to real-time market signals
If a title is gaining traction, spend scales up; if struggling, paid spend is reduced
Reid notes that for a breakout hit, marketing spend could exceed development budget
The model deliberately avoids carpet-bombing campaigns: "Just sort of carpet bombing the universe about game X by and large is a failing proposition in my discipline"
The AA budget structure provides more flexibility than AAA but requires disciplined capital allocation
06
Clear stance against AI-generated content
Reid is an advisor to Makko AI, a 2D game creation platform, but downplays AI enthusiasm
ProbablyMonsters' games contain no generative AI content
"What I have seen in AI is that consumers are not looking for AI generated content. They're not looking for games written by machines."
07
What's next - more IP and a long-term portfolio play
ProbablyMonsters plans to reveal additional unannounced titles in the months ahead
The company is doubling down on discovery-driven, world-building single-player experiences
Reid expresses confidence in financial position despite early stumbles: "I feel very good about where we're at"
Long-term goal is a portfolio of critically acclaimed AND commercially successful titles - not one or the other
Events
Companies
Games
Locations
—
COMPILED BY GAMES ATLAS EDITORIAL
RELATED ARTICLES
EXPLORE MORE
Comments (0)
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!