Denis Fedorov pools five studios into Nova Assembly to buffer indies against industry layoffs
Summary
GDC's 2026 State of the Game Industry survey found 28% of respondents were laid off in the past two years, rising to 33% among US respondents.
Unfrozen founder Denis Fedorov argues single-project indie studios have no buffer when a publishing deal collapses or a launch underperforms.
His operational answer is Nova Assembly, a holding company co-owned by five studios that pool development and marketing expertise while each keeps its own IP and creative direction.
"Volatility has become the new normal, and that's the issue: we either adapt or leave the market."
01
Single-project studios carry no structural buffer
Industry layoffs escalated sharply starting in 2022 and have hit major studios and small indie teams alike.
GDC's 2026 survey puts the two-year layoff rate at 28% globally and 33% in the US, a level Fedorov calls a historic loss of institutional knowledge and talent.
He frames the risk as structural rather than a talent or execution problem: one cancelled publishing deal or one underperforming launch can end years of work for a studio built around a single project.
"Declining revenue, restructuring, and rising development costs all highlight the same structural problem: single-project studios have no buffer when something goes wrong."
02
Nova Assembly decouples survival from any one game's performance
Fedorov recommends holding at least 12-18 months of financial runway that is independent of any single project's outcome.
He pairs that runway with fast-iteration prototypes, testing ideas before committing a full team to production.
He is explicit that this does not require staffing two full productions at once - it means testing what comes next while the main project stays properly staffed.
Nova Assembly operationalizes this at the corporate level: five co-owned studios share development and marketing expertise so that one studio's setback does not automatically become fatal for the group.
03
Publisher retreat raises the stakes for internal capital pooling
Publishers used to trade funding, marketing support, and platform access for revenue share and, often, creative control.
Fedorov states that even experienced publishers now prefer proven metrics and established audiences, cutting the room for experimentation and raising marketing costs for indies.
He points to self-publishing, early access, and dedicated indie funds such as Outersloth as the emerging alternatives to traditional publisher deals.
With external funding harder to secure, capital and expertise pooled inside a structure like Nova Assembly substitutes for financing publishers no longer reliably supply.
04
Studios pool capacity but keep their own IP
Fedorov argues that developers working in isolation lose perspective, especially on longer projects, and that a technical bottleneck can become a major crisis for an inexperienced team without outside support.
His prescription is studios supporting each other with capacity, tools, and honest feedback while each retains full control of its own IP, team, and direction, the exact arrangement Nova Assembly's five studios run on.
"For indie developers, collaboration with like-minded studios is non-negotiable."
05
Nova Assembly's cost-sharing mechanics remain undisclosed
Fedorov does not disclose Nova Assembly's cost-sharing ratios, equity structure, or how tools and capacity are allocated across its five studios, leaving the "replicable model" argument short on verifiable mechanics.
He treats 2025's breakout indie hits, Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 and Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2, as outliers rather than proof the survival formula guarantees commercial success.
Alinea Analytics estimated indie games generated about $4.5 billion of Steam's 2025 revenue, over a quarter of the platform's total, evidence that indie success extends beyond a handful of outlier hits.
"Being 'OK' is the same as being nothing."
What this means
For Publishers & Developers: Hold 12-18 months of runway independent of any single project, and test next concepts via fast prototypes while keeping the main production fully staffed.
For Investors & VC: Nova Assembly's cost-sharing ratios and equity structure are undisclosed, so diligence on its replicable pooled-holding model lacks verifiable mechanics for now.
For Service Vendors: Publishers now favor proven metrics, pushing indies toward self-publishing, early access and funds like Outersloth, which raises their marketing costs and demand for outside support.
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